Hatch First Macro
Detected when a greedy three-base economy (40+ Drones) opens hatch-first vs Protoss.
32.9% win rate over 70 games vs Diamond opponents with 12 starting workers
Overall: 41.4% over 128 games from 8 players · updated Nov 5, 2026
With 12 starting workers, 8 players logged 128 ZvP ladder games with Hatch First Macro, winning 41.4% of the decided ones. The likely range for its true win rate is 33.3–50.1%, so it is too close to call against a coin flip. It is played most against Diamond opponents, where it wins 32.9% over 70 games. It appears in 5.5% of the 2,319 ZvP games in the guide sample. Its win rate is up 4.3 percentage points on the previous weekly snapshot. This is still a small sample (n = 128), so treat it as a directional read.
Win rate by league and MMR
Grouped by the opponent's league and MMR band. Bands without enough games are left out.
How to read these numbers
- Green: the whole likely range is above 50%
- Too close to call
- Red: the whole likely range is below 50%
Likely range: We're 95% sure the true win rate is inside this range. Fewer games means a wider range.
Openers are ranked by the low end of the range, so a few lucky games can't top the table.
A number appears once at least 5 players have played 30 games in it; a guide page needs 100 games.
Compared with a snapshot at least 7 days old; moves under 0.5 pp count as flat.
Updated nightly · last update Nov 5, 2026
More in Help: Reading guide statsBy opponent league
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamond | 32.9% | 23.0–44.5% | 70 |
| Master | 60.0% | 42.3–75.4% | 30 |
By opponent MMR
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3500–4000 MMR | 31.4% | 20.3–45.0% | 51 |
| 4000–4500 MMR | 47.2% | 32.0–63.0% | 36 |
Key timings
These timings come from 128 recorded build orders by 8 players. Buildings are timed when construction starts, upgrades and morphs when they finish, exactly as the replay records them. The median player finishes Glial Reconstitution at 7:20, with the middle half between 6:41 and 8:10. Winning games start 3rd Hatchery at 2:14 on median, against 2:44 in losses. Timing data is still thin (n = 128 replays), so expect these medians to move.
| Milestone | Early (p25) | Median | Late (p75) | Wins vs losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extractor startedin 128 games | 0:15 | 0:22 | 0:25 | 0:23 vs 0:167s later in wins |
| 2nd Hatchery startedin 128 games | 0:46 | 0:46 | 0:49 | 0:46 vs 0:471s earlier in wins |
| Spawning Pool startedin 128 games | 1:12 | 1:13 | 1:16 | 1:14 vs 1:131s later in wins |
| 3rd Hatchery startedin 128 games | 2:02 | 2:40 | 2:51 | 2:14 vs 2:4430s earlier in wins |
| Metabolic Boost donein 122 games | 3:36 | 3:45 | 3:54 | 3:47 vs 3:425s later in wins |
| Roach Warren startedin 117 games | 3:38 | 3:56 | 4:28 | 3:55 vs 3:594s earlier in wins |
| Evolution Chamber startedin 103 games | 4:10 | 4:57 | 6:06 | 4:33 vs 5:0229s earlier in wins |
| Lair donein 126 games | 4:55 | 5:27 | 5:53 | 5:24 vs 5:295s earlier in wins |
| Glial Reconstitution donein 83 games | 6:41 | 7:20 | 8:10 | 7:33 vs 7:0627s later in wins |
Army at 6, 8 and 10 minutes
| Unit | 6:00 | 8:00 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|
 Queen | ×497% | ×496% | ×497% |
 Roach | ×655% | ×1384% | ×1477% |
 Zergling | ×876% | ×963% | ×660% |
 Ravager | not built | ×346% | ×451% |
 Overseer | not built | ×138% | ×143% |
At 6:00
Typical count in games that built it · how often it appears · 125 replays
- Queen×4in 97% of games
- Zergling×8in 76% of games
- Roach×6in 55% of games
At 8:00
Typical count in games that built it · how often it appears · 106 replays
- Queen×4in 96% of games
- Roach×13in 84% of games
- Zergling×9in 63% of games
- Ravager×3in 46% of games
- Overseer×1in 38% of games
At 10:00
Typical count in games that built it · how often it appears · 75 replays
- Queen×4in 97% of games
- Roach×14in 77% of games
- Zergling×6in 60% of games
- Ravager×4in 51% of games
- Overseer×1in 43% of games
What it beats and loses to
Win rate against each opponent opener, ranked by the low end of its likely range.
Too close to call (1)
| Opponent opener | ||
|---|---|---|
| Stargate Opener | 38.3%, too close to calllikely range 25.8–52.6% | 47 |
When it wins
Win rate by game length: does the build close games early or pay off late?
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6–10 min | 36.0% | 24.1–49.9% | 50 |
| 10–15 min | 45.5% | 33.0–58.5% | 55 |
Common macro leaks
Average macro score 69.2 over 128 games from 8 players.
- Supply Blockedin 100.0% of games128 of 128
- Mineral Floatin 85.9% of games110 of 128
- Inject Efficiencyin 32.0% of games41 of 128