3 Base Ling Flood
Detected when three bases pump 20+ Zerglings on a low drone count -- the ZvT ling-flood timing.
44.1% win rate over 143 games vs Diamond opponents since patch 5.0.16
n = 261 games from 7 players · Stats updated Sep 28, 2026
3 Base Ling Flood wins 48.3% of decided games across 261 ZvT ladder games from 7 players since patch 5.0.16. The likely range for its true win rate is 42.3–54.3%, so it is too close to call against a coin flip. It is played most at Diamond, where it wins 44.1% over 143 games. It appears in 26.2% of the 996 ZvT games in the guide sample.
Win rate by league and MMR
Grouped by the opponent's league and MMR band. Bands without enough games are left out.
By opponent league
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platinum | 44.4% | 30.9–58.8% | 45 |
| Diamond | 44.1% | 36.2–52.2% | 143 |
By opponent MMR
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2500–3000 MMR | 44.3% | 32.5–56.7% | 61 |
| 3000–3500 MMR | 48.5% | 39.0–58.1% | 101 |
Key timings
These timings come from 240 recorded build orders by 7 players. Buildings are timed when construction starts, upgrades and morphs when they finish, exactly as the replay records them. The median player finishes Lair at 6:06, with the middle half between 5:28 and 6:50. Winning games start Evolution Chamber at 6:01 on median, against 5:42 in losses.
| Milestone | Early (p25) | Median | Late (p75) | Wins vs losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extractor startedin 240 games | 0:37 | 0:40 | 0:42 | 0:41 vs 0:401s later in wins |
| 2nd Hatchery startedin 240 games | 1:14 | 1:16 | 1:41 | 1:15 vs 1:216s earlier in wins |
| Spawning Pool startedin 240 games | 1:09 | 1:36 | 1:40 | 1:37 vs 1:352s later in wins |
| 3rd Hatchery startedin 240 games | 3:20 | 3:35 | 4:16 | 3:35 vs 3:35same in wins and losses |
| Metabolic Boost donein 240 games | 4:12 | 4:27 | 4:42 | 4:28 vs 4:262s later in wins |
| Baneling Nest startedin 198 games | 4:09 | 4:43 | 5:30 | 4:45 vs 4:414s later in wins |
| Evolution Chamber startedin 204 games | 4:24 | 5:52 | 6:48 | 6:01 vs 5:4219s later in wins |
| Lair donein 225 games | 5:28 | 6:06 | 6:50 | 6:05 vs 6:061s earlier in wins |
Army at 6, 8 and 10 minutes
At 6:00
Median count when present · 234 replays
Queen×4in 96% of games
Zergling×14in 94% of games
Baneling×9in 61% of games
Overseer×2in 51% of games
At 8:00
Median count when present · 209 replays
- Queen×4in 97% of games
- Zergling×17in 89% of games
- Baneling×14in 62% of games
- Overseer×2in 58% of games
Roach×6in 18% of games
At 10:00
Median count when present · 184 replays
- Queen×4in 97% of games
- Zergling×26in 83% of games
- Baneling×15in 66% of games
- Overseer×2in 64% of games
- Roach×9in 22% of games
Ravager×4in 17% of games
What it beats and loses to
Win rate against each opponent opener, ranked by the low end of its likely range.
When it wins
Win rate by game length: does the build close games early or pay off late?
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6–10 min | 50.9% | 37.9–63.9% | 53 |
| 10–15 min | 40.2% | 30.6–50.7% | 87 |
| 15–20 min | 48.5% | 37.0–60.2% | 68 |
| 20+ min | 56.9% | 43.3–69.5% | 51 |
Best and worst maps
Best maps
- Rainfall LE40 games57.5%likely range 42.2–71.5%
- Rorschach LE41 games51.2%likely range 36.5–65.8%
- Sanctuary III LE41 games46.3%likely range 32.1–61.3%
Toughest maps
- At Eternity's Edge LE37 games37.8%likely range 24.1–53.9%
- Washout LE45 games44.4%likely range 30.9–58.8%
Common macro leaks
Average macro score 66.3 over 261 games from 7 players.
- Supply Blockedin 100.0% of games261 of 261
- Mineral Floatin 77.4% of games202 of 261
- Inject Efficiencyin 41.0% of games107 of 261