Drone Macro (Hatch First)
Detected when a greedy hatch-first economy (30+ Drones, slow Pool) drones up in ZvZ.
52.9% win rate over 85 games vs Diamond opponents with 12 starting workers
Overall: 45.2% over 124 games from 6 players · updated Nov 5, 2026
Across 124 ZvZ ladder games from 6 players with 12 starting workers, Drone Macro (Hatch First) wins 45.2% of decided games. The likely range for its true win rate is 36.7–53.9%, so it is too close to call against a coin flip. It is played most against Diamond opponents, where it wins 52.9% over 85 games. It appears in 5.9% of the 2,087 ZvZ games in the guide sample. Its win rate is down 2.5 percentage points on the previous weekly snapshot. This is still a small sample (n = 124), so treat it as a directional read.
Win rate by league and MMR
Grouped by the opponent's league and MMR band. Bands without enough games are left out.
How to read these numbers
- Green: the whole likely range is above 50%
- Too close to call
- Red: the whole likely range is below 50%
Likely range: We're 95% sure the true win rate is inside this range. Fewer games means a wider range.
Openers are ranked by the low end of the range, so a few lucky games can't top the table.
A number appears once at least 5 players have played 30 games in it; a guide page needs 100 games.
Compared with a snapshot at least 7 days old; moves under 0.5 pp count as flat.
Updated nightly · last update Nov 5, 2026
More in Help: Reading guide statsBy opponent league
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamond | 52.9% | 42.4–63.2% | 85 |
By opponent MMR
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3500–4000 MMR | 56.4% | 43.3–68.6% | 55 |
| 4000–4500 MMR | 37.5% | 22.9–54.8% | 32 |
Key timings
These timings come from 124 recorded build orders by 6 players. Buildings are timed when construction starts, upgrades and morphs when they finish, exactly as the replay records them. The median player finishes Glial Reconstitution at 6:45, with the middle half between 6:11 and 7:37. Winning games start 3rd Hatchery at 4:31 on median, against 2:56 in losses. Timing data is still thin (n = 124 replays), so expect these medians to move.
| Milestone | Early (p25) | Median | Late (p75) | Wins vs losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extractor startedin 124 games | 0:15 | 0:21 | 1:09 | 0:16 vs 0:2610s earlier in wins |
| 2nd Hatchery startedin 124 games | 0:45 | 0:50 | 0:52 | 0:47 vs 0:514s earlier in wins |
| Spawning Pool startedin 124 games | 1:04 | 1:11 | 1:13 | 1:08 vs 1:135s earlier in wins |
| Baneling Nest startedin 75 games | 2:48 | 2:52 | 3:04 | — |
| Evolution Chamber startedin 110 games | 3:10 | 3:31 | 4:13 | 3:22 vs 3:4826s earlier in wins |
| Metabolic Boost donein 85 games | 3:32 | 3:35 | 3:42 | 3:36 vs 3:351s later in wins |
| 3rd Hatchery startedin 112 games | 2:48 | 3:37 | 5:04 | 4:31 vs 2:5695s later in wins |
| Roach Warren startedin 111 games | 3:18 | 3:41 | 4:05 | 3:27 vs 3:4619s earlier in wins |
| Lair donein 110 games | 4:21 | 4:53 | 5:48 | 4:44 vs 5:1127s earlier in wins |
| Glial Reconstitution donein 78 games | 6:11 | 6:45 | 7:37 | — |
Army at 6, 8 and 10 minutes
| Unit | 6:00 | 8:00 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|
 Queen | ×399% | ×3100% | ×394% |
 Roach | ×871% | ×2292% | ×2383% |
 Zergling | ×871% | ×9.549% | not built |
 Overseer | ×130% | ×142% | not built |
 Ravager | not built | ×440% | not built |
 Baneling | ×237% | not built | not built |
At 6:00
Typical count in games that built it · how often it appears · 103 replays
- Queen×3in 99% of games
- Roach×8in 71% of games
- Zergling×8in 71% of games
- Baneling×2in 37% of games
- Overseer×1in 30% of games
At 8:00
Typical count in games that built it · how often it appears · 77 replays
- Queen×3in 100% of games
- Roach×22in 92% of games
- Zergling×9.5in 49% of games
- Overseer×1in 42% of games
- Ravager×4in 40% of games
At 10:00
Typical count in games that built it · how often it appears · 47 replays
- Queen×3in 94% of games
- Roach×23in 83% of games
What it beats and loses to
Win rate against each opponent opener, ranked by the low end of its likely range.
Too close to call (1)
| Opponent opener | ||
|---|---|---|
| Drone Macro (Hatch First) | 49.1%, too close to calllikely range 36.1–62.1% | 53 |
When it wins
Win rate by game length: does the build close games early or pay off late?
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6–10 min | 48.2% | 35.7–61.0% | 56 |
| 10–15 min | 54.8% | 40.0–68.8% | 42 |
Common macro leaks
Average macro score 72.5 over 124 games from 6 players.
- Supply Blockedin 100.0% of games124 of 124
- Mineral Floatin 63.7% of games79 of 124