Carrier Rush
Detected if the Stargate is the FIRST tech building (built before any Twilight Council / Dark Shrine / Robotics Facility), a Fleet Beacon is up by 10:00, and at least 1 Carrier has been produced by 10:00 -- a true Stargate-opener Carrier rush. A DT or Glaives opener that adds a Stargate / Fleet Beacon / Carrier late tags as PvZ - DT Opener or PvZ - Adept Glaives instead. Carriers without a Stargate + Fleet Beacon are treated as hallucinations.
69.2% win rate over 39 games vs Grandmaster opponents since patch 5.0.16
n = 72 games from 4 players · Stats updated Sep 28, 2026
Across 72 PvZ ladder games from 4 players since patch 5.0.16, Carrier Rush wins 66.7% of decided games. The likely range for its true win rate is 55.2–76.5%, so it wins more often than it loses. It is played most against Grandmaster opponents, where it wins 69.2% over 39 games. It appears in 12.9% of the 559 PvZ games in the guide sample. This guide is newly published, so there is no weekly trend yet. This is still a small sample (n = 72), so treat it as a directional read.
Video guide
PvZ Carrier Rush: Can Zerg Stop It?
Published Sep 19, 2026
I'm rushing Carriers, but I can't give Zerg a free game.
Win rate by league and MMR
Grouped by the opponent's league and MMR band. Bands without enough games are left out.
By opponent league
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grandmaster | 69.2% | 53.6–81.4% | 39 |
By opponent MMR
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5000–5500 MMR | 58.1% | 40.8–73.6% | 31 |
Key timings
These timings come from 71 recorded build orders by 3 players. Buildings are timed when construction starts, upgrades and morphs when they finish, exactly as the replay records them. The median player finishes Charge at 11:27, with the middle half between 10:22 and 12:14. Timing data is still thin (n = 71 replays), so expect these medians to move.
| Milestone | Early (p25) | Median | Late (p75) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pylon startedin 71 games | 0:34 | 0:35 | 0:36 |
| Gateway startedin 71 games | 0:56 | 0:58 | 1:00 |
| Assimilator startedin 71 games | 1:07 | 1:08 | 1:10 |
| 2nd Nexus startedin 71 games | 1:47 | 1:49 | 1:52 |
| Cybernetics Core startedin 71 games | 2:00 | 2:02 | 2:05 |
| Stargate startedin 71 games | 2:56 | 3:01 | 3:12 |
| Warpgate donein 71 games | 4:49 | 4:53 | 5:14 |
| 3rd Nexus startedin 71 games | 4:47 | 4:59 | 5:28 |
| Fleet Beacon startedin 71 games | 5:08 | 5:20 | 6:05 |
| Forge startedin 71 games | 5:42 | 6:18 | 7:03 |
| Twilight Council startedin 62 games | 5:09 | 8:15 | 9:15 |
| Templar Archives startedin 56 games | 9:14 | 9:43 | 10:36 |
| Robotics Facility startedin 50 games | 10:02 | 10:53 | 12:20 |
| Charge donein 54 games | 10:22 | 11:27 | 12:14 |
Army at 6, 8 and 10 minutes
At 6:00
Median count when present · 71 replays
Adept×4in 94% of games
Void Ray×1in 89% of games
Oracle×1in 83% of games
At 8:00
Median count when present · 71 replays
- Void Ray×1in 85% of games
- Oracle×1in 82% of games
- Adept×3in 79% of games
Mothership×1in 58% of games
At 10:00
Median count when present · 66 replays
Carrier×3in 100% of games- Mothership×1in 88% of games
- Void Ray×1in 73% of games
- Adept×2in 68% of games
- Oracle×1in 59% of games
When it wins
Win rate by game length: does the build close games early or pay off late?
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–15 min | 76.5% | 60.0–87.6% | 34 |
Common macro leaks
Average macro score 75.7 over 72 games from 4 players.
- Supply Blockedin 100.0% of games72 of 72
- Mineral Floatin 91.7% of games66 of 72
- Chrono Efficiencyin 88.9% of games64 of 72