Hatch First Macro
Detected when a greedy three-base economy (40+ Drones) opens hatch-first vs Terran.
29.6% win rate over 81 games vs Diamond opponents with 12 starting workers
Overall: 31.8% over 132 games from 7 players · updated Nov 5, 2026
With 12 starting workers, 7 players logged 132 ZvT ladder games with Hatch First Macro, winning 31.8% of the decided ones. The likely range for its true win rate is 24.5–40.2%, so it loses more often than it wins. It is played most against Diamond opponents, where it wins 29.6% over 81 games. It appears in 5.9% of the 2,252 ZvT games in the guide sample. Its win rate is down 1.5 percentage points on the previous weekly snapshot. This is still a small sample (n = 132), so treat it as a directional read.
Win rate by league and MMR
Grouped by the opponent's league and MMR band. Bands without enough games are left out.
How to read these numbers
- Green: the whole likely range is above 50%
- Too close to call
- Red: the whole likely range is below 50%
Likely range: We're 95% sure the true win rate is inside this range. Fewer games means a wider range.
Openers are ranked by the low end of the range, so a few lucky games can't top the table.
A number appears once at least 5 players have played 30 games in it; a guide page needs 100 games.
Compared with a snapshot at least 7 days old; moves under 0.5 pp count as flat.
Updated nightly · last update Nov 5, 2026
More in Help: Reading guide statsBy opponent league
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamond | 29.6% | 20.8–40.3% | 81 |
| Master | 28.6% | 16.3–45.1% | 35 |
By opponent MMR
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3000–3500 MMR | 28.6% | 16.3–45.1% | 35 |
| 3500–4000 MMR | 31.4% | 20.3–45.0% | 51 |
| 4000–4500 MMR | 32.3% | 18.6–49.9% | 31 |
Key timings
These timings come from 132 recorded build orders by 7 players. Buildings are timed when construction starts, upgrades and morphs when they finish, exactly as the replay records them. The median player finishes Lair at 5:41, with the middle half between 5:21 and 6:08. Winning games start Evolution Chamber at 5:49 on median, against 5:28 in losses. Timing data is still thin (n = 132 replays), so expect these medians to move.
| Milestone | Early (p25) | Median | Late (p75) | Wins vs losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extractor startedin 132 games | 0:15 | 0:22 | 1:09 | 0:19 vs 0:245s earlier in wins |
| 2nd Hatchery startedin 132 games | 0:46 | 0:50 | 0:52 | 0:49 vs 0:512s earlier in wins |
| Spawning Pool startedin 132 games | 1:12 | 1:13 | 1:14 | 1:13 vs 1:13same in wins and losses |
| 3rd Hatchery startedin 132 games | 2:15 | 2:42 | 2:57 | 2:42 vs 2:42same in wins and losses |
| Metabolic Boost donein 130 games | 3:36 | 3:44 | 3:54 | 3:47 vs 3:416s later in wins |
| Baneling Nest startedin 113 games | 4:14 | 4:52 | 5:32 | 4:56 vs 4:515s later in wins |
| Evolution Chamber startedin 115 games | 4:40 | 5:37 | 6:45 | 5:49 vs 5:2821s later in wins |
| Lair donein 125 games | 5:21 | 5:41 | 6:08 | 5:49 vs 5:3712s later in wins |
Army at 6, 8 and 10 minutes
| Unit | 6:00 | 8:00 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|
 Queen | ×598% | ×596% | ×599% |
 Zergling | ×1387% | ×2488% | ×25.587% |
 Baneling | not built | ×748% | ×753% |
 Roach | ×427% | ×628% | ×930% |
At 6:00
Typical count in games that built it · how often it appears · 128 replays
- Queen×5in 98% of games
- Zergling×13in 87% of games
- Roach×4in 27% of games
At 8:00
Typical count in games that built it · how often it appears · 113 replays
- Queen×5in 96% of games
- Zergling×24in 88% of games
- Baneling×7in 48% of games
- Roach×6in 28% of games
At 10:00
Typical count in games that built it · how often it appears · 103 replays
- Queen×5in 99% of games
- Zergling×25.5in 87% of games
- Baneling×7in 53% of games
- Roach×9in 30% of games
What it beats and loses to
Win rate against each opponent opener, ranked by the low end of its likely range.
Too close to call (1)
| Opponent opener | ||
|---|---|---|
| Fast 3 CC | 41.9%, too close to calllikely range 26.4–59.2% | 31 |
When it wins
Win rate by game length: does the build close games early or pay off late?
| Group | Win rate | Likely range (95%) | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–15 min | 26.7% | 17.1–39.0% | 60 |
| 15–20 min | 47.1% | 31.4–63.3% | 34 |
Common macro leaks
Average macro score 70.0 over 132 games from 7 players.
- Supply Blockedin 100.0% of games132 of 132
- Mineral Floatin 92.4% of games122 of 132
- Inject Efficiencyin 32.6% of games43 of 132